Predicted grades explained for IGCSE, A-Level and IB

How predicted grades are used, by qualification

How schools set predictions

UCAS's principles for predicted grades say they should be achievable and based on demonstrable evidence of performance, objective and data-driven (looking at past performance, internal assessments or current work), made by professional judgement, and set independently of the universities a student applies to. They must also be final when the application is submitted: universities may only consider the predictions sent with it.

In practice, most Gulf British and IB schools use Year 12 end-of-year exams, mock results and coursework or internal assessment drafts. KHDA's guide to the IB notes that IB schools coordinate predicted grades and recommendation letters as part of university guidance. Ask your school for its written policy: UCAS encourages schools to share their process with students and parents early.

The 2027 entry calendar

UCAS dates for courses starting in 2027. Predictions must be ready before your school submits the application.

Gulf schools often set internal deadlines weeks earlier, because they write references and check predictions first.

Predicted versus achieved

UCAS reports a widening gap between predicted and achieved grades over the longer term, especially at the top: around half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA or above in 2025, against 26% of accepted applicants who achieved AAA or above. Universities know this, which is why many weigh other evidence too, such as GCSE or IGCSE grades, admissions tests and interviews.

For a family, the lesson is that a generous prediction gets the offer but does not get the place. A student predicted A*AA who achieves ABB may miss a firm offer, so the work in Year 13 still decides the outcome.

How a student can raise their predictions

1. Treat Year 12 end-of-year exams as real exams: they are often the main evidence.
2. Ask each teacher what evidence the prediction will rest on, and when it will be fixed.
3. Hand in strong coursework and internal assessment drafts early; IB internal assessments and A-Level non-exam work feed teacher judgement.
4. Show improvement in timed past papers over the summer and the first weeks of Year 13.
5. Keep the conversation factual: schools set predictions independently of university choice, so arguing that a university needs a grade will not move it.

IGCSE predictions and sixth-form places

At 16, predictions matter for sixth form rather than university. Many schools offer A-Level or IB places on predicted IGCSE grades in the spring of Year 11, with conditions such as a 6 or 7 in the subjects to be taken further. A student whose prediction falls below the bar for a subject may still meet it in the summer, but the place may go to someone else in the meantime, so mocks in Year 11 matter.

How one-to-one lessons help

Predictions follow evidence, and the evidence is built in Year 12 exams, mocks and coursework. A tutor can target the topics where marks are lost, practise past papers against the official mark schemes for the exact A-Level or IB course, and help a student plan internal assessments and essays without writing them for them. Starting before Year 12 summer exams gives the most leverage.

LiveTutor lessons are one to one, 60 minutes, online, after school in Gulf time, with tutors who teach the Cambridge, Edexcel, AQA and IB courses they list. We cannot promise grades, but we can make sure the evidence your school sees reflects what your child can do.